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9/9 Market View Weekly: By the Numbers

9/9 Market View Weekly: By the Numbers

September 13, 2022
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Stocks Rise

Stocks fell coming off the Labor Day weekend, dragged down by news that Russia was cutting off natural gas supplies to its European customers. Stocks also were under pressure due to a surprisingly strong report on business conditions, which heightened fears of continued Fed hawkishness.

Sentiment quickly improved as bond yields turned lower and oil prices fell. Investors reacted positively to comments by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated the Fed’s commitment to quashing inflation while acknowledging the risks of going too far. Stocks added to their gains on Thursday as the market digested another speech from Fed Chair Powell and a 0.75% hike by the European Central Bank. The markets surged on Friday amid little news, ending a positive week on an upbeat note.

Market Update

Observations

U.S. equities were positive on the week; the S&P 500 Index rallied to end the week up 3.68%.

Domestically, Mid-sized companies outperformed their larger and smaller counterparts as the Russell Mid Cap index increased by 4.8%.

Domestic stocks strongly outperformed international stocks.

International developed market stocks performed better than emerging market stocks with the MSCI EAFE index up 0.89%.

U.S. bonds were negative as Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index was down -0.70% for the week.

Queen Elizabeth II – The monarch passed away on September 8th at age 96. Her 70 year and 214 day reign is the longest of any British monarch and the longest recorded of any female head of state in history. The queen regnant began her reign on February 6, 1952, aged just 25, following the death of her father, King George VI. During her majesty’s reign, 15 prime ministers served the sovereign, five popes were elected, and 14 United States presidents occupied the Oval Office. 2

NFL Season Kicks off - NBC Sports is projecting coverage of the Thursday night 2022 Kickoff Game between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams, averaging 21 million-plus viewers. The audience represents a 19% decline from last season’s opener between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys season opener last year.3

Covid-19 Illnesses caused by Covid-19 shrank the U.S. labor force by around 500,000 people, a hit that is likely to continue is if the virus continues to sicken workers at current rates, according to a new study released Monday. Millions of people left the labor force during the pandemic for various reasons, including retirement, lack of childcare, and fear of Covid. The total size of the labor force reached 164.7 million people in August, exceeding the February 2020 pre-pandemic level for the first time.4

1 Data Obtained from Bloomberg as 9/09/2022

2 BBC News. (2022, September 8). Obituary: Queen Elizabeth II. Retrieved September 12, 2022, from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61605149

3 Johnson, M. (2022, September 10). NFL TV Ratings: Bills-Rams NFL Kickoff opener pulls 20 million viewers. Sportsnaut. Retrieved September 12, 2022, from https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-tv-ratings-viewership-numbers/

4 Guilford, G. (2022, September 12). Covid-19 Illnesses Are Keeping at Least 500,000 Workers Out of U.S. Labor Force, Study Says. WSJ. Retrieved September 12, 2022, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-illnesses-are-keeping-at-least-500-000-workers-out-of-u-s-labor-force-study-says-11662955321?mod=hp_lead_pos4

Economic Definitions

Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate tracks the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labor force (the total number of employed plus unemployed). These figures generally come from a household labor force survey.

ISM Services Index: PMI Surveys track sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms. An overall sentiment index is generally calculated from the results of queries on production, orders, inventories, employment, prices, etc. Target Audience: supply management professionals Sample Size: 300 individuals Date of Survey: through the month The Services Index is a composite index of four indicators with equal weights: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries. An index reading above 50% indicates an expansion and below 50% indicates a decline in the non-manufacturing economy. Where as per Supplier Deliveries Index, above 50% indicates slower deliveries and below 50% indicates faster deliveries.

Initial Jobless Claims: Initial unemployment claims track the number of people who have filed jobless claims for the first time during the specified period with the appropriate government labor office. This number represents an inflow of people receiving unemployment benefits.

Continuing Jobless Claims: Continuing claims are the number of people filing for unemployment benefits who have already filed an initial claim. To be included in continuing claims, the person must be covered by unemployment insurance and must be currently receiving benefits. They must have been unemployed for at least a week after filing the initial claim, per Department of Labor (DoL) specifications.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Consumer confidence tracks sentiment among households or consumers. The results are based on surveys conducted among a random sample of households. Target Audience: representative sample of US households (excluding Alaska and Hawaii). Surveys of Consumers collects data on consumer attitudes and expectations summarized in the Consumer Sentiment, in order to determine the changes in consumers' willingness to buy and to predict their subsequent discretionary expenditures. This Index is comprised of measures of attitudes toward personal finances, general business conditions, and market conditions or prices. Components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment are included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index. Unit: Index (Q1 1966=100)

Index Definitions

S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

NASDAQ: The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of February 5, 1971.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Russell Mid-Cap: Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index.

Russell 2000: The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The real-time value is calculated with a base value of 135.00 as
of December 31, 1986. The end-of-day value is calculated with a base value of 100.00 as of December 29, 1978.

MSCI EAFE: The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. The MSCI EAFE region covers DM countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East.

MSCI EM: The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid-cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Bond: The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Corp: The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition,
are excluded.

Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg: The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index is a flagship measure of global investment grade debt from twenty-four local currency markets. This multi-currency benchmark includes treasury, government-related, corporate and securitized fixed-rate bonds from both developed and emerging markets issuers.

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Municipal Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax-exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and prerefunded bonds.

Disclosures

Index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses, and if deducted, performance would be reduced. Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.

The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of the Advisor Group Research Team and are being provided for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein should not be relied upon for investment decisions and may differ from those of other departments or divisions of Advisor Group or its affiliates. Certain information may be based on information received from sources the Advisor Group Research Team considers reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness of such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of the Advisor Group Research Team only as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Advisor Group has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements. Advisor Group is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.

Securities and investment advisory services are offered through the firms: FSC Securities Corporation, Royal Alliance Associates, Inc., SagePoint Financial, Inc., Triad Advisors, LLC, and Woodbury Financial Services, Inc., broker-dealers, registered investment advisers, and members of FINRA and SIPC. Securities are offered through Securities America, Inc., a broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Arbor Point Advisors, LLC, Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, Inc., Securities America Advisors, Inc., and Triad Hybrid Solutions, LLC, registered investment advisers. Advisory programs offered by FSC Securities Corporation, Royal Alliance Associates, Inc., SagePoint Financial, Inc., Securities America Advisors, Inc., Triad Advisors, LLC., and Woodbury Financial Services, Inc., are sponsored by VISION2020 Wealth Management Corp., an affiliated registered investment adviser.